Pricing, resolution criteria, and where the crowd gets it wrong.
A dated snapshot of Polymarket's Iran markets — ceasefire, nuclear, leadership, and Strait of Hormuz odds as of late July 2026 — and how to read them without getting burned.
A plain-English guide to Kalshi: what it is, how its CFTC-regulated event contracts and dollar settlement work, what you can trade, and what to understand before you do.
A plain-English guide to Polymarket: what it is, how the onchain contracts and USDC settlement work, what you can trade, and the risks to understand before you do.
A plain-English guide to prediction markets: what they are, how the contracts work, why the price is a probability, and what they're good and bad at.
A 62¢ contract is not a price — it's a crowd's forecast. Here's how to translate cents into probability, and where that translation quietly breaks down.
Both let you trade on real-world outcomes, but they differ in regulation, settlement, market breadth, and fee structure — and those differences change which one fits your trade.
Mispricings rarely announce themselves. These are the recurring patterns worth checking before you decide a market has the odds wrong.